What Is a Reasonable Prospect of Conviction in Canada?

Learn what a reasonable prospect of conviction means in Canadian criminal law, how Crown prosecutors apply this standard, and why charges may be withdrawn when evidence is insufficient.

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What “Reasonable Prospect of Conviction” Means

Reasonable prospect of conviction is the evidentiary standard that Crown prosecutors in Canada must satisfy before they can lawfully proceed with a criminal charge. The standard asks: based on all available evidence, is there a realistic chance that a properly instructed judge or jury would convict the accused?

It is higher than mere suspicion. It is lower than proof beyond a reasonable doubt. If the Crown concludes the standard is not met, they are legally and ethically obligated to stay or withdraw the charges, regardless of what police believe.

Where the Reasonable Prospect of Conviction Standard Comes From

The reasonable prospect of conviction standard is not found in a single provision of the Criminal Code of Canada. Instead, it is grounded in the prosecution policies of every provincial and territorial Crown office, and in the Public Prosecutions Service of Canada (PPSC) Deskbook, the official manual governing all federal prosecutions in Canada.

Section 3.4 of the PPSC Deskbook describes a two-part test that every Crown prosecutor must apply before proceeding with a charge:

Is there a reasonable prospect of conviction based on the available evidence?
Is proceeding with the prosecution in the public interest?

Both parts must be satisfied. A case with compelling evidence may still be resolved without a trial if prosecution does not serve the public interest. A case that clearly serves the public interest cannot proceed if the evidence standard is not met.

Ontario’s Crown Policy Manual applies the same two-part framework at the provincial level.

The Two-Part Prosecution Test

The two-part prosecution test requires the Crown to first determine whether there is a reasonable prospect of conviction based on the available evidence, and second, whether proceeding with the case is in the public interest. Only when both elements are satisfied should a prosecution move forward.

The Evidence Question

The first part of the test is entirely about evidence. The Crown must assess whether the available evidence, if believed and accepted by the judge or jury, would be sufficient to support a conviction. This is not a question of whether the Crown prosecutor personally believes the accused is guilty. It is an objective question: could a properly instructed judge or jury reasonably return a guilty verdict?

To answer that, the Crown looks carefully at:

The credibility and reliability of every witness
Whether each piece of evidence is likely to be admissible at trial
The defences the accused is likely to raise
Whether all elements of the charged offence, including the act itself and the intent behind it (actus reus and mens rea), can be proven on the available evidence

If any of these factors create a realistic probability of acquittal, the evidence standard may not be met and the charge should not proceed.

The Public Interest Question

Even when the evidence threshold is satisfied, the Crown must still ask whether proceeding with prosecution actually serves the public interest. This analysis considers factors like:

The seriousness of the alleged offence
The accused’s background and personal circumstances
The impact on the victim and on the community
Whether alternatives to prosecution, like diversion programs or restorative justice, are appropriate
Whether significant delay has already occurred, potentially engaging the accused’s rights under section 11(b) of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms

A minor first offence supported by solid evidence may still be resolved through a diversion agreement rather than a full prosecution. The public interest component of the two-part test ensures that Canada’s criminal justice system is used proportionately.

How the Prosecution Threshold Compares to Other Legal Standards in Canada

There is a critical distinction for someone who has been arrested: police only need reasonable grounds to believe an offence was committed in order to make an arrest. That is a significantly lower bar than the prosecution threshold. Charges are regularly laid by police that the Crown later determines cannot be proven to the required standard. When that happens, those charges must be stayed or withdrawn.

Standard	Applied By	When It Applies
Reasonable suspicion	Police	Investigative detention
Reasonable grounds to believe	Police	Arrest without a warrant
Reasonable prospect of conviction	Crown prosecutor	Charge screening / prosecution decision
Balance of probabilities	Civil courts	Civil liability
Proof beyond a reasonable doubt	Judge or jury	Criminal conviction at trial

Being arrested does not mean being prosecuted. Being charged does not mean being convicted.

When Does the Crown Apply This Test? Understanding Charge Screening

The reasonable prospect of conviction analysis takes place at the charge screening stage, the formal process by which the Crown reviews charges and decides whether to proceed.

In some provinces, Crown approval is required before a charge is ever laid. In Ontario and most other provinces, police lay the charge first and the Crown screens the file before or at your first court appearance.

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In either model, the Crown reviews the same materials: the Crown brief, witness statements (often called will-say statements), police notes, and any documentary or physical evidence gathered during the investigation.

What Happens in Post-Charge Provinces Like Ontario

In Ontario, if you have been charged with a criminal offence, the Crown will screen your file before or at your first appearance. Your defence lawyer can request a charge screening meeting, a formal discussion with the assigned Crown prosecutor about the strength of the evidence and whether the prosecution threshold is met.

What Happens When There Is No Reasonable Prospect of Conviction? Staying Charges and Insufficient Evidence

When the Crown concludes that the evidence standard is not met, they have a legal and ethical duty to stop the prosecution. The most common outcome is a stay of proceedings entered under section 579 of the Criminal Code of Canada. A stay of proceedings formally suspends the prosecution. Other available options include:

Withdrawing the charge. This is typically done before a plea is entered.
Not authorizing to lay an information. This applies in pre-charge screening provinces, where the Crown never authorizes the charge in the first place.
Requesting further investigation. This applies where the Crown believes additional evidence could address the deficiency before a final prosecution decision is made.

Can a Stayed Charge Come Back?

Under section 579(2) of the Criminal Code of Canada, a stayed charge can technically be recommenced within one year of the stay being entered. After that, the stay becomes permanent. If your charges have been stayed, a criminal defence lawyer can advise you on the practical likelihood of recommencement in your specific circumstances.

How a Criminal Defence Lawyer Uses This Standard on Your Behalf

One of the most effective tools available to a criminal defence lawyer is making pre-trial representations to the Crown, a formal written or oral submission arguing that the evidence falls below the reasonable prospect of conviction threshold. If those representations are successful, the Crown stays or withdraws the charges before any trial takes place. That means:

No trial
No criminal record
No conviction

The goal is to resolve the matter at the earliest possible stage, before the costs and uncertainty of trial become necessary.

A defence lawyer preparing pre-trial representations will review the Crown brief in detail and look for the specific weaknesses that undermine the prosecution threshold.

Witness credibility issues. If a key witness has a history of prior inconsistent statements, a motive to fabricate, or credibility concerns in the file, the Crown’s case may not hold up under scrutiny.

Charter issues. If evidence was obtained through an unlawful search or seizure under section 8 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, or through an arbitrary detention under section 9, a defence lawyer can argue that the evidence should be excluded under section 24(2). If critical evidence is excluded, the evidence foundation of the Crown’s case may collapse, and with it, the reasonable prospect of conviction.

Missing elements of the offence. Every criminal offence requires proof of specific elements. If the available evidence does not clearly establish what was done and whether there was intent behind it (actus reus and mens rea), the prosecution threshold is not met.

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Identity evidence. In many cases, the central issue is not whether the offence occurred, but whether the accused is the person who committed it. Weak identification evidence is one of the most common grounds on which pre-trial representations succeed.

If you are facing criminal charges and want to know whether the evidence against you actually meets the reasonable prospect of conviction standard, contact Pyzer Criminal Lawyers 24/7 at (416) 658-1818, or request a free case evaluation.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Reasonable Prospect of Conviction

What does it mean if the Crown says my case has a reasonable prospect of conviction?

It means the Crown has reviewed the available evidence and concluded there is a realistic chance of obtaining a conviction at trial. The charge will proceed. This assessment is not final. It can change if new information comes to light or if your criminal defence lawyer successfully challenges the Crown’s analysis through pre-trial submissions. The Crown is required to re-evaluate the standard throughout the proceedings, not just at the initial charge screening stage.

Does a reasonable prospect of conviction mean I will be convicted?

No. The reasonable prospect of conviction standard determines only whether the Crown can proceed with a charge, not whether you will be found guilty. You are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Many charges that clear the prosecution threshold at screening result in acquittals at trial, because the standard for proceeding is deliberately lower than the standard required to convict.

What is the difference between a reasonable prospect of conviction and proof beyond a reasonable doubt?

These are entirely different standards applied at different stages of the criminal process. A reasonable prospect of conviction is the threshold the Crown applies before trial to determine whether to proceed. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt is the standard the Crown must meet during trial to obtain a conviction. The prosecution standard is intentionally lower. The full picture of evidence is not always available at the pre-trial stage, and the standard is designed to allow prosecution to proceed where there is a realistic possibility of conviction, not a certainty of it.

Can a defence lawyer ask the Crown to reconsider whether the standard is met?

Yes. A criminal defence lawyer can request a charge screening meeting or a pre-trial conference and make formal representations to the Crown on your behalf. These submissions can address evidentiary weaknesses, Charter issues, or credibility concerns that undermine the prosecution threshold. Pre-trial representations are one of the most valuable early steps in any criminal defence strategy, and they can result in charges being stayed or withdrawn without the need for a trial.

What if the Crown proceeds even though the evidence seems weak?

If you believe the Crown is proceeding without a reasonable prospect of conviction, your criminal defence lawyer may be able to bring a stay of proceedings application before the court, arguing that continuing the prosecution constitutes an abuse of process. This is a remedy available under section 24(1) of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. These applications require a high threshold, but they are available in appropriate cases where the Crown’s conduct falls outside acceptable boundaries.

Does the reasonable prospect of conviction standard apply to all criminal charges in Canada?

Yes. The reasonable prospect of conviction standard applies to all criminal and quasi-criminal matters prosecuted by the Crown in Canada, from summary conviction offences to the most serious indictable charges. The weight given to the public interest component of the two-part test varies with the seriousness of the offence, but the evidence standard is consistent across all charge types.

This article provides general legal information only and should not be construed as legal advice. Laws and their interpretation may change, and the application of law to specific circumstances requires professional legal assessment. If you have questions about a legal matter, please contact us for a free consultation.

Jonathan Pyzer

Jonathan Pyzer, B.A., L.L.B., is an experienced criminal defence lawyer and distinguished alumnus of McGill University and the University of Western Ontario. As the founder of Pyzer Criminal Lawyers, he brings over two decades of experience to his practice, having successfully represented hundreds of clients facing criminal charges throughout Toronto.